How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions

There’s a lot of good that comes from jumping. Jumping to catch a baseball as it’s going over the outfield wall can get you on ESPN’s SportsCenter. Jumping to get out of the way of an oncoming train can be literally life-saving. And then of course there is my personal favorite, jumping for joy. I mean, really, who doesn’t like joy?

But not all jumping is good. Some is downright bad. Perhaps none more so than jumping to conclusions.

The world was able to witness the pitfalls of jumping to conclusions in real-time recently when an attempt was made to assassinate Donald Trump. Within minutes, “experts” on social media knew exactly what happened, how it had happened, and why it had happened. One of the first accounts I read was on X, formerly known as Twitter. This “expert” declared the whole thing was fake, stating that there were no shots, no bullets, and no injuries.

Now you may find that hard to believe, but this “expert” had irrefutable proof. Their proof was that an AR-15 was likely used, and as “everyone knows” a bullet from an AR-15 that comes even within 1 foot of someone will “blow them apart.” A bullet couldn’t have just grazed someone’s ear; if it even came close to their ear, they would be gone.

How could anyone even begin to argue with “proof” like that?

That person had a preconceived notion of what happened and simply “bent” the “facts” to accommodate that notion. There was no attempt to discover any new information because that new information may challenge their thinking. They simply jumped to the conclusion they wanted.

Now before you go thinking that the person who posted that is an obvious idiot, you need to make sure that you don’t, at least at times, do the same kind of thing. Maybe not that crazy of a conclusion, but we all have the ability to “mind-bend” facts to get them to accommodate the outcome we’re hoping for.

Jumping to conclusions is very expensive for a business and very damaging to our personal lives. It’s likely you, me, and everyone else has made a decision at work that was based on a false, quickly jumped to, conclusion.

You may have also prematurely ended a relationship based on jumping to a conclusion too quickly. With too few facts and way too much emotion.

But we humans are emotional beings, and it almost seems to be human nature to jump to conclusions. So how do we control our nature and make fact-based, well-thought-out decisions that are less emotional and more logic-based?

That’s going to require that we change some habits. Habits of using facts “we just know” need to be replaced with reflective thinking and critical evaluation. Here are some ideas that can help you begin to make the necessary changes.

Gather All Information:

• Ensure you have all the relevant facts before forming an opinion. The key word there is indeed “before”.

• Seek out additional data if necessary, and avoid relying solely on initial impressions. First impressions are often incorrect, but that doesn’t make them easy to get out of your mind.

Consider Multiple Perspectives:

• Try to view the situation from different angles.

• Ask yourself how others might view the same issue and why they might hold different opinions.

Question Assumptions:

• Identify any assumptions you might be making. You know what assuming makes us, right?

• Challenge these assumptions and consider whether they are justified.

Delay Judgment:

• Give yourself time to think before making a decision.

• Avoid making snap judgments or decisions when you’re emotional or stressed. Remember, any decision made in less than 10 minutes is a snap decision.

Seek Evidence:

• Look for evidence that supports or contradicts your initial thoughts.

• Base your conclusions on concrete evidence rather than speculation or hearsay. “They” are the biggest liars in the world. “They” can never be held accountable because nobody really has a clue who “they” are. Don’t trust “they.”

Reflect on Past Experiences:

• Consider past situations where you might have jumped to conclusions and reflect on the outcomes. I’ll bet you’d like a do-over on many of them.

• Learn from these experiences to improve your decision-making process.

Engage in Critical Thinking:

• Use logic and reasoning to analyze the situation.

• Break down complex issues into smaller parts and evaluate each component systematically.

Ask Clarifying Questions:

• If you’re unsure about something, ask questions to gain clarity. Guessing and assuming make great springboards to a mistaken conclusion. Stay grounded by asking questions or doing as complete a job of research as possible.

• Don’t hesitate to seek further information from reliable sources.

Discuss with Others:

• Talk to others who might have more information or a different viewpoint. Be open to those different viewpoints and understand that even the smartest people can be wrong sometimes. That means you can be wrong sometimes too.

• Engaging in discussions can provide new insights and help you see the bigger picture.

Self-awareness:

• Recognize when you might be jumping to conclusions and take a step back to reassess. If you don’t have the facts, actual concrete facts, to support your conclusion, you may have jumped into something you shouldn’t have. Never hesitate to jump back out.

There’s a lot of discussion going on right now about “dialing down the rhetoric” and choosing our words more carefully. That’s hard to do when you’re in mid-air jumping towards a conclusion. So, think before you decide, think before you speak, and think before you risk making a fool of yourself.

Kinda sounds like thinking can solve a lot of problems. I hope that’s one conclusion we can all agree on.

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How to Know What You Can Believe

I am sorry to say that this post includes a harsh dose of reality, which is: Not everything you see and read on the internet is true. I know that’s shocking for some of you, perhaps especially so for those who live life according to the gospel of TikTok. Someone recently explained to me that TikTok isn’t the internet, it’s an app. Apple allows it in their App Store. So, you know all the info on it is right.

So I was pretty much put in my place. 🥴

Knowing what to believe in today’s information-rich environment can be challenging. In the end people will believe what they want to believe. Many people look for “evidence” to support the position they already hold. And there is plenty of that so-called evidence to support literally any position, no matter how far off the beaten path it may be.

But if you’re interested in growing, it’s possible to use the never-ending stream of information on the internet to do that as well. Here are several key strategies to help discern credible information from misinformation.

• Evaluate the source.

⁃ Reputation: Consider the reputation of the source. Established and respected institutions, news outlets, and academic journals are generally more reliable.

⁃ Author Credentials: Check the qualifications and expertise of the author. Experts in the field are more likely to provide accurate information.

⁃ Affiliations: Be aware of the affiliations and potential biases of the source. Such sources may have strong ideologies or financial motives. They may present information in a biased way.

• Cross-Verification.

⁃ Multiple Sources: Look for information that’s corroborated by multiple independent sources. Consistency across various reputable sources increases credibility.

⁃ Primary vs. Secondary Sources: Whenever possible, refer to primary sources (original documents, direct evidence) rather than secondary sources (interpretations, summaries).

• Check for bias.

⁃ Content Analysis: Assess whether the content is presenting a balanced view or if it seems to have a particular agenda. Extreme language or one-sided arguments often indicate bias.

⁃ Fact vs. Opinion: Distinguish between factual reporting and opinion pieces. Facts should be supported by evidence, while opinions are subjective interpretations.

• Analyze the Evidence.

⁃ Supporting Data: Reliable information should be backed by data, research, and credible references. Scrutinize the quality of the evidence presented.

⁃ Logical Consistency: Ensure that the information is logically coherent and consistent with established knowledge. Beware of information that requires accepting unlikely or contradictory premises.

• Consider the context.

⁃ Historical and Cultural Context: Understand the broader context in which the information is presented. This includes historical background, cultural factors, and current events.

⁃ Purpose and Intent: Reflect on the purpose of the information. Is it to inform, persuade, entertain, or sell something? Understanding intent can reveal potential biases.

• Use critical thinking.

⁃ Question Assumptions: Don’t take information at face value. Question underlying assumptions and seek to understand the reasoning behind claims.

⁃ Identify Fallacies: Be aware of common logical fallacies and rhetorical techniques that can be used to mislead or manipulate.

• Seek expert opinion.

⁃ Consult Experts: When in doubt, seek the opinion of experts in the field. They can provide insights that are based on extensive knowledge and experience.

⁃ Expert Consensus: Consider the consensus among experts. While individual experts may have differing opinions, a strong consensus usually indicates a reliable conclusion.

• Stay informed and updated.

⁃ Continuous Learning: Stay informed about developments in various fields. This helps in understanding new information in the context of existing knowledge.

⁃ Adapt and update your beliefs: Be willing to revise your beliefs in light of new, credible information. Flexibility in thinking is crucial for staying accurate and well-informed.

I try to get as much information from as wide a variety of sources as possible. Many of the sources I have an absolute bias against. But sometimes they say something that will make me rethink my position. Sometimes I may even discover I’ve been wrong about something.

I think the real key to knowing what you can believe is to question everything you see and hear. By using the strategies I’ve outlined, you can get better at telling credible information from misinformation. This will let you have more accurate beliefs.

In the polarized world we live in it is vital that we believe what is true and reject what isn’t. That’s up to each of us. I would never dare to tell anyone what to believe. But, I would strongly encourage everyone to ensure that what they believe is believable.

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