How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions

There’s a lot of good that comes from jumping. Jumping to catch a baseball as it’s going over the outfield wall can get you on ESPN’s SportsCenter. Jumping to get out of the way of an oncoming train can be literally life-saving. And then of course there is my personal favorite, jumping for joy. I mean, really, who doesn’t like joy?

But not all jumping is good. Some is downright bad. Perhaps none more so than jumping to conclusions.

The world was able to witness the pitfalls of jumping to conclusions in real-time recently when an attempt was made to assassinate Donald Trump. Within minutes, “experts” on social media knew exactly what happened, how it had happened, and why it had happened. One of the first accounts I read was on X, formerly known as Twitter. This “expert” declared the whole thing was fake, stating that there were no shots, no bullets, and no injuries.

Now you may find that hard to believe, but this “expert” had irrefutable proof. Their proof was that an AR-15 was likely used, and as “everyone knows” a bullet from an AR-15 that comes even within 1 foot of someone will “blow them apart.” A bullet couldn’t have just grazed someone’s ear; if it even came close to their ear, they would be gone.

How could anyone even begin to argue with “proof” like that?

That person had a preconceived notion of what happened and simply “bent” the “facts” to accommodate that notion. There was no attempt to discover any new information because that new information may challenge their thinking. They simply jumped to the conclusion they wanted.

Now before you go thinking that the person who posted that is an obvious idiot, you need to make sure that you don’t, at least at times, do the same kind of thing. Maybe not that crazy of a conclusion, but we all have the ability to “mind-bend” facts to get them to accommodate the outcome we’re hoping for.

Jumping to conclusions is very expensive for a business and very damaging to our personal lives. It’s likely you, me, and everyone else has made a decision at work that was based on a false, quickly jumped to, conclusion.

You may have also prematurely ended a relationship based on jumping to a conclusion too quickly. With too few facts and way too much emotion.

But we humans are emotional beings, and it almost seems to be human nature to jump to conclusions. So how do we control our nature and make fact-based, well-thought-out decisions that are less emotional and more logic-based?

That’s going to require that we change some habits. Habits of using facts “we just know” need to be replaced with reflective thinking and critical evaluation. Here are some ideas that can help you begin to make the necessary changes.

Gather All Information:

• Ensure you have all the relevant facts before forming an opinion. The key word there is indeed “before”.

• Seek out additional data if necessary, and avoid relying solely on initial impressions. First impressions are often incorrect, but that doesn’t make them easy to get out of your mind.

Consider Multiple Perspectives:

• Try to view the situation from different angles.

• Ask yourself how others might view the same issue and why they might hold different opinions.

Question Assumptions:

• Identify any assumptions you might be making. You know what assuming makes us, right?

• Challenge these assumptions and consider whether they are justified.

Delay Judgment:

• Give yourself time to think before making a decision.

• Avoid making snap judgments or decisions when you’re emotional or stressed. Remember, any decision made in less than 10 minutes is a snap decision.

Seek Evidence:

• Look for evidence that supports or contradicts your initial thoughts.

• Base your conclusions on concrete evidence rather than speculation or hearsay. “They” are the biggest liars in the world. “They” can never be held accountable because nobody really has a clue who “they” are. Don’t trust “they.”

Reflect on Past Experiences:

• Consider past situations where you might have jumped to conclusions and reflect on the outcomes. I’ll bet you’d like a do-over on many of them.

• Learn from these experiences to improve your decision-making process.

Engage in Critical Thinking:

• Use logic and reasoning to analyze the situation.

• Break down complex issues into smaller parts and evaluate each component systematically.

Ask Clarifying Questions:

• If you’re unsure about something, ask questions to gain clarity. Guessing and assuming make great springboards to a mistaken conclusion. Stay grounded by asking questions or doing as complete a job of research as possible.

• Don’t hesitate to seek further information from reliable sources.

Discuss with Others:

• Talk to others who might have more information or a different viewpoint. Be open to those different viewpoints and understand that even the smartest people can be wrong sometimes. That means you can be wrong sometimes too.

• Engaging in discussions can provide new insights and help you see the bigger picture.

Self-awareness:

• Recognize when you might be jumping to conclusions and take a step back to reassess. If you don’t have the facts, actual concrete facts, to support your conclusion, you may have jumped into something you shouldn’t have. Never hesitate to jump back out.

There’s a lot of discussion going on right now about “dialing down the rhetoric” and choosing our words more carefully. That’s hard to do when you’re in mid-air jumping towards a conclusion. So, think before you decide, think before you speak, and think before you risk making a fool of yourself.

Kinda sounds like thinking can solve a lot of problems. I hope that’s one conclusion we can all agree on.

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The Enemy of Rumors

When I was a graduate student working towards my PhD in Psychology I developed a theory on the origin of rumors. Oh wait, I forgot, I was never a graduate student working towards a PhD in anything. I’m just a sales guy who has been around long enough to know some stuff. (Let’s see if my non PhD turns into a rumor) 🙂

But I did develop a theory on the origin of rumors. I figure people have this space inside them, like in their brain, where they hold information. They are most comfortable when that space is full. If it isn’t filled with actual information from factual sources then they fill it themselves, often with rumors. 

That would make factual information the enemy of rumors. 

Bosses, managers and even leaders all claim to hate rumors floating around in their organizations. Yet they fail to understand their own role in the creation of those rumors. When they fail to keep their people full of factual information their people latch on to rumors to fill up their information space. 

Many bosses, lots of managers and even some leaders believe that information is power. They think that when they share information they somehow lose some of their power and control over their people. So they withhold information. Even information that could help their people be more productive and successful. 

What Authentic Leaders understand is that information only becomes powerful with it is shared with people who can somehow benefit from it. Some people may use the information to avoid a problem. Other people may use it to solve a problem that already exists. Still other may use it to finish a creative project that was started by someone else who lacked the information required to finish it. Many people just pass the information along to other people to help them grow and develop. 

Still more people file the information away in their “space” until the day they find a use for it. 

Very little information is actually useless. It will likely all be used at the appropriate time and place. That’s why the most successful people gather bits of information every single day. Most people call the gathering of those bits of information learning. 

So if you’re a boss, manager or leader ask yourself how much information do you withhold from your people for the simple reason that you can. Ask yourself if your unproductive habit of not sharing information stems from your belief that holding onto information somehow makes you more important or powerful. Ask yourself if your unwillingness to share information might be a result of you lacking faith in your own leadership abilities. 

Then ask yourself what information you’re holding right now that could help the people you lead. Maybe it’s information that would help build the culture of your organization. Maybe it’s information that could help the sales team sell more. Maybe it’s information that could help your people help more customers. And maybe it’s just a fun tidbit of information about the company that people would appreciate knowing. 

Once you’ve answered those questions then you can launch your assault on rumors within your team or organization. Information is a formidable enemy of rumors. Arm your people with the information they want and need and their space will be too full to allow rumors to enter.

Sure Things

It’s hard to know these days exactly what you can believe. You can find “facts” on the internet to support almost anything you want to be true. But as President Abraham Lincoln once said, “Don’t believe everything you read online.” 

But this post is in fact loaded with truths. No need to worry about checking Wikipedia for this post, these truths are sure things.

The first absolute truth is this…You are special! You matter, you make a difference in this world simply by being you. Never let the words or actions of another person cause you to doubt this indisputable truth. Your self-respect is priceless and always remember that no one can steal it from you unless you leave the door unlocked.

The second sure thing is that you can do more than you think you can. Henry Ford said “Whether you think you can or you think you can’t, you’re right.” If you’re like most people one of your greatest obstacles to success is your own self-doubt. The most successful people didn’t think they could succeed, they knew they would succeed. Develop that mindset and you’re on your way to the success you deserve. 

One of the surest sure things is that your chances for success are much better when you have a coach or a mentor. The qualifications for a good mentor are many but the best mentors have a long view of life. That means that they know other people built bridges for them to cross. Their long view of life drives them to build bridges themselves, for people just like you. Find yourself a mentor and your bridge to the future will come into focus.

The surest sure thing is this: God believes in you even if you don’t believe in Him. The things you’ve done that you think are unforgivable can be forgiven by Him before you even do them. That means the path is clear for you to forgive yourself. God’s love for you is real. It is boundless and never ending. Remember that on the days you feel unloveable and every day of your life will be better because of it. 

The next sure thing is that it costs you nothing to be kind. The struggles you face are real and every person you meet has struggles in their life too. Being intentionally kind to others helps them deal with their struggles and makes your own seem more manageable too.

The final sure thing is that 2022 will only be a good as you allow it to be. The attitude you choose to carry with you each day will either make everything better or worse. And here’s some great news: your attitude is completely your choice. In his book, “Man’s Search for Meaning” Viktor Frankl described the last of the human freedoms as the ability to choose one’s attitude in any given circumstance. Before you dismiss that as Pollyanna thinking you should know that Viktor Frankl lived a part of his life in the worst circumstances humans have ever found themselves in. Yet he never allowed anyone or anything to rob him of that precious choice. 

When you choose to have a positive attitude every single part of your life will be better. But you must make that conscious choice on a daily basis. The fastest way to building a better life is to build a better you. 

The better your attitude the better you will be!